derived/uptake/families.csv

Derived analysis output (scratchpad derived/uptake/families.csv).

This is a derived table/summary; the finding's excerpt is usually a paraphrase of its counts, so it may not be highlighted verbatim.

family,group,n_lines,n_writers,first_line,first_final_arrival,final_h_rel_norm,first_line_h_rel_norm,share_lines_jun16_17,n_cohorts,max_concurrent_cohorts,asym_vocab_share_prefinal,median_followup_timer_s,rounds,death_mechanism,first_final_source,final_q_predictable,final_q_pred_evidence,final_token,final_token_first,final_known_lead_h,writers_joining_after_final_public,answer_space,answer_type,seed_vocab_lines,tooling_share,relay_lines_before_first_final,hub_mentions_before_final,writers_with_prior_hub_edit,share_writers_prior_hub_edit,wiki_norm_lines_3h_before_final,counter_tool_mentioned_prefinal,MED_relay_req_about_survival,MED_relay_req_about_identity,OUT_death_signers,OUT_norm_signers_narrow,OUT_norm_signers_broad,OUT_ratio_narrow,OUT_ratio_broad
datausa_cashier,high,592,132,2026-05-26T13:17:31Z,2026-06-16T12:11:11,-9.6,-512.5,0.53,73,22,0.16,20.0,5,horizon ~24s after R5 deadline,confirmed-line,likely (descending values) then confirmed Jun16 12Z,"CashierRound4RelayMay28@1 11:33:44Z Jun16 ""Likely next Psychology""",Psycholog,2026-06-16T11:11:02,1.0,0.93,open (states/countries/fields),integer count,0,0.078,55,0,5,0.04,1,0,1,31,54,27,27,0.5,0.5
datausa_clothing,high,556,157,2026-06-16T09:31:52Z,2026-06-16T19:51:08,-2.0,-12.3,1.0,103,31,0.02,15,3,final answer (inferred),confirmed-line,no,,Florida,2026-06-16T19:45:49,0.09,0.64,open (states/countries/fields),integer count,0,0.007,140,0,1,0.01,7,0,0,114,6,13,17,2.17,2.83
datausa_grocery,high,352,109,2026-06-16T09:43:24Z,2026-06-16T19:49:04,-2.0,-12.1,1.0,57,6,0.04,30,5,final answer (inferred),confirmed-line,hypothesis (unconfirmed RNG seed),"DataUSAGroceryLiveRounds2027@5 10:54:31Z Jun16 ""UNCONFIRMED RNG hypothesis ... predicts G5 Maryland""",Maryland|G5-MD,2026-06-16T10:54:31,8.91,0.95,open (states/countries/fields),integer count,22,0.043,99,0,0,0.0,7,0,0,69,11,17,20,1.55,1.82
datausa_language,high,351,60,2026-06-16T19:40:41Z,2026-06-16T23:31:59,1.7,-2.2,0.95,46,19,0.12,46.0,5,final answer (inferred),confirmed-line,no (RNG predicted wrong: NM),DataUSALangR5RelayOct23@6 22:54:00Z Jun16 RNG predicts R5=NEW MEXICO (wrong),California,2026-06-16T21:04:29,2.46,0.87,open (states/countries/fields),percent,7,0.174,55,0,1,0.02,86,1,2,41,20,32,33,1.6,1.65
datausa_maids,high,231,56,2026-06-16T09:33:25Z,2026-06-21T22:03:53,120.2,-12.3,0.9,39,12,0.09,32,3,final answer (inferred),confirmed-line,no,,,,,0.0,gender x year,dollar wage,1,0.1,125,0,0,0.0,9,1,4,56,8,6,7,0.75,0.88
datausa_poverty,high,241,75,2026-06-16T13:40:52Z,2026-06-17T02:12:59,4.4,-8.1,0.62,53,14,0.13,27.0,5,final answer (inferred),confirmed-line,no,,\bPitt\b,2026-06-17T02:12:59,0.0,0.76,open (states/countries/fields),percent,6,0.029,31,0,1,0.01,112,1,2,16,38,23,24,0.61,0.63
datausa_sector61,high,345,112,2026-06-16T18:44:27Z,2026-06-16T20:53:31,-0.9,-3.1,0.97,73,23,0.1,13.0,5,final answer (inferred),confirmed-line,no,Sector61State5ConfirmedIDDec27@1 22:14:33Z Jun16 first mention of Idaho = the pre-signal itself,Idaho|STATE5-ID,2026-06-16T22:14:33,-1.35,0.04,open (states/countries/fields),integer count,2,0.038,56,0,0,0.0,8,0,8,13,16,7,10,0.44,0.62
ihme_family_planning,high,105,27,2026-06-20T11:07:47Z,2026-06-21T11:56:45,110.1,85.3,0.0,25,6,0.28,39,4,final answer (inferred),confirmed-line,no,,Bahrain,2026-06-21T11:54:44,0.03,0.78,open (states/countries/fields),percent,10,0.0,9,0,0,0.0,35,0,1,7,10,7,8,0.7,0.8
oecd_equity,high,519,124,2026-06-17T09:46:10Z,2026-06-20T01:36:38,75.8,11.9,0.0,94,44,0.15,56.0,4,R4 deadline just before 2h15 horizon,confirmed-line,likely (Visegrad-4 order) ; R4-vs-R5 finality unknown,"OECDEducationEquitySequence@3 12:05:20Z Jun17 ""R4 is very likely Slovak Republic""",Slovak,2026-06-17T09:46:10,63.84,0.99,4-5 V4/CEE countries,2dp index,0,0.119,40,0,0,0.0,2,1,21,5,55,41,45,0.75,0.82
datausa_finance,low,85,18,2026-06-17T06:27:22Z,2026-06-17T10:01:28,12.2,8.6,0.0,11,5,0.19,15.0,5,final answer (inferred),approx (first cohort R5 due; no R5 ever confirmed on wiki),"yes (descending-wage top-5, all cached)","FinanceSequenceMar26OAI@19 08:49:32Z Jun17 ""observed order ... matches descending 2022 Average Wage""",customer service|\bCSR\b,2026-06-17T07:26:46,2.58,0.61,top-5 occupations list (cached all),dollar gap,0,0.024,39,0,1,0.06,7,0,8,16,11,1,1,0.09,0.09
datausa_prod,low,193,31,2026-05-26T16:25:16Z,2026-06-19T07:46:45,57.9,-509.4,0.47,12,4,0.01,40,3,fixed 2h15 horizon,confirmed-line,yes (year series),,\b2019\b,2026-06-16T19:59:51,59.78,0.74,year series,integer/percent,0,0.0,8,0,0,0.0,2,0,0,8,9,1,2,0.11,0.22
datausa_veterans,low,50,20,2026-06-17T09:12:33Z,2026-06-17T09:37:00,11.8,11.4,0.0,14,8,0.0,21.0,5,final answer (inferred),approx (first cohort R5 due; no R5 ever confirmed on wiki),yes (chart code: 5 categories),"NYCVeteransSequenceCollabJul03@18 17:03:37Z Jun17 ""R5 should be final"" (code proof)",Gulf ?War \(2001|Gulf ?2001|Gulf20,2026-06-17T09:12:33,0.41,0.95,5 chart categories (code-proved),integer count,0,0.0,1,0,1,0.05,9,0,1,0,13,1,2,0.08,0.15
ihme_cvd,low,450,96,2026-06-18T04:03:15Z,2026-06-19T00:05:48,50.3,30.2,0.0,74,20,0.07,22,5,time cap before announced R6,confirmed-line,R5 known; R6 unknown but never arrives,"HealthdataCVDSequenceCollab@3 21:51:17Z Jun18 ""R5 was Poland ... R6 due""",Poland,2026-06-18T21:51:17,2.24,0.97,open country list,deaths (decimal),0,0.058,18,0,0,0.0,6,0,13,3,15,4,66,0.27,4.4
oecd_regional,low,131,32,2026-06-21T08:05:59Z,2026-06-21T09:07:01,107.3,106.3,0.0,15,6,0.12,24,5,time cap (R6 7-38s before cap),confirmed-line,"R5 alphabetical-likely; R6 unknown, time-capped",,\bITA\b|Italy|Sweden,2026-06-21T08:05:59,1.02,0.94,open country list,decimal,0,0.015,0,0,0,0.0,57,0,0,0,2,0,6,0.0,3.0
datausa_construction,other,513,113,2026-06-17T00:34:00Z,2026-06-17T02:20:36,4.5,2.7,0.28,76,14,0.03,14,5,slow tier horizon test,confirmed-line,no,,Nebraska,2026-06-17T02:06:10,0.24,0.88,open (states/countries/fields),integer count,1,0.094,22,0,2,0.02,114,1,9,9,48,20,21,0.42,0.44
datausa_enrollment,other,59,15,2026-06-19T15:16:40Z,2026-06-21T18:16:24,116.4,65.4,0.0,9,5,0.17,28,4,final answer (inferred),confirmed-line,,,,,,0.0,open (states/countries/fields),integer count,3,0.119,15,0,0,0.0,3,0,0,1,1,1,2,1.0,2.0
datausa_ivy,other,33,11,2026-06-16T19:47:51Z,,,-2.0,1.0,12,4,0.24,20.0,,final answer (inferred),,,,,,,0.0,open (states/countries/fields),,0,0.0,21,0,0,0.0,,0,0,6,0,0,1,0.0,1.0
datausa_other,other,152,64,2026-06-16T09:27:10Z,,,-12.4,0.95,33,5,0.09,13.0,,final answer (inferred),,,,,,,0.0,open (states/countries/fields),,4,0.007,42,0,1,0.02,,0,2,16,2,0,1,0.0,0.5
datausa_police,other,175,26,2026-06-18T14:25:21Z,2026-06-18T16:54:36,43.1,40.6,0.0,26,11,0.33,29.0,5,"hard cutoff ~Q1+90m, phantom R6",confirmed-line,yes (ascending age bands),,45-49,2026-06-18T14:25:21,2.49,0.96,ordered age bands,dollar wage,0,0.0,2,0,1,0.04,1,0,0,1,7,4,5,0.57,0.71
datausa_transport,other,119,45,2026-06-16T18:53:45Z,2026-06-16T19:46:27,-2.1,-2.9,1.0,34,6,0.19,12,3,final answer (inferred),confirmed-line,no,,,,,0.0,open (states/countries/fields),dollar value,0,0.008,28,0,0,0.0,7,0,0,16,2,4,5,2.0,2.5
datausa_wage_occ,other,70,25,2026-06-17T07:06:49Z,2026-06-21T22:54:58,121.1,9.3,0.0,23,5,0.19,28.0,5,final answer (inferred),confirmed-line,,,,,,0.0,open (states/countries/fields),dollar wage,0,0.057,31,0,0,0.0,8,1,3,6,4,2,2,0.5,0.5
ihme_other,other,33,16,2026-06-19T20:06:43Z,,,70.3,0.0,11,2,0.36,17,4,final answer (inferred),,,,,,,0.0,open (states/countries/fields),,0,0.0,16,0,0,0.0,,0,0,13,2,2,3,1.0,1.5
oecd_other,other,196,65,2026-06-19T23:24:27Z,,,73.6,0.0,64,32,0.14,56,,final answer (inferred),,,,,,,0.0,open (states/countries/fields),,0,0.133,61,0,0,0.0,,1,24,6,31,18,21,0.58,0.68
uefa,other,47,9,2026-06-20T06:21:28Z,2026-06-20T10:48:20,85.0,80.5,0.0,6,6,0.22,21.0,5,final answer (inferred),confirmed-line,likely (rank order),,\bSLO\b|Slovenia|Slovakia,2026-06-20T06:51:54,3.94,0.78,open (states/countries/fields),percent,0,0.064,12,0,0,0.0,31,0,0,1,1,1,4,1.0,4.0